Germany's far-right AfD seeks landmark state victory as Saxony-Anhalt votes - Reuters

Voters in the eastern German state of Saxony‑Anhalt went to the polls on Sunday in a contest that could produce the first far‑right government at a state level since World War II. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), a party known for its anti‑immigration stance, entered the election as the clear front‑runner, having been placed comfortably ahead in opinion polls for several months.

Under the leadership of 35‑year‑old Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD has been polling at just over 40 percent, while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led nationally by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is recorded at roughly 23 percent. Analysts note that an absolute majority for the AfD would be possible if several smaller parties fail to clear the 5 percent threshold required to enter the state parliament, a scenario that would give the AfD enough seats to govern without coalition partners.

Germany’s proportional electoral system is designed to encourage coalition building and makes it difficult for a single party to secure an outright majority. Consequently, even with a strong lead, the AfD would need to surpass the 5 percent hurdle for all competing parties to achieve the decisive vote share required for a solo government.

If the AfD falls short of an absolute majority, the formation of a government could become complicated by the longstanding “firewall” policy adopted by mainstream parties, which involves refusing to cooperate with the AfD. In that circumstance, a CDU‑led administration under the incumbent state premier could seek to assemble a coalition with other parties that have cleared the entry threshold.

The election is also being watched as a barometer for Chancellor Merz’s government, which has attempted to curb the AfD’s popularity by adopting a tougher line on migration and security. The outcome will therefore have implications not only for Saxony‑Anhalt’s regional politics but also for the broader national discourse on the far‑right’s role in German governance.