Brazil's Lula widens first-round lead, remains tied with Bolsonaro in runoff polls - Reuters

A recent poll shows that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has expanded his advantage in the race for a first‑round victory in Brazil’s upcoming presidential election, while a simulated runoff remains dead‑locked with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.

The survey indicates that Lula’s share of voting intentions for the first round has risen, giving the incumbent left‑wing president a clearer lead over his challengers. The exact margin of the increase was not disclosed, but analysts note that the trend reflects a strengthening of support for Lula as the election approaches.

In contrast, the same poll’s runoff simulation places Lula and Bolsonaro on equal footing. The two candidates are statistically tied, suggesting that a second‑round contest would be highly competitive if no candidate secures an outright majority in the first round.

The election is scheduled for next month, and the possibility of a runoff has kept the race closely watched. A tied runoff scenario would mean that both candidates would need to mobilise additional voters in a second ballot to achieve a decisive win.

The findings come from a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll released on Monday, September 28. The poll surveyed a representative sample of Brazilian voters and is one of several recent surveys tracking the evolving dynamics of the presidential contest.