‘He’d lose to an empty chair’: The Labor preselection tactic to save two ministers

Labor head office has held back the preselection of two ministers – including a key ally of Premier Chris Minns – over fears they could be ousted by local members if their nomination goes to a vote, with the party preparing to intervene to stave off the potential for an embarrassing challenge.

At the same time, senior Labor sources have confirmed multiple veteran backbenchers may be convinced to retire before the election as the party struggled to comply with affirmative action rules requiring it to have equal representation between men and women in parliament.

Sports Minister Steve Kamper and Fair Trading Minister Anoulack Chanthivong have had their preselection delayed due to Sussex Street’s concern they may no longer hold the numbers in their local branches to win an open vote by the Labor membership.

But Kamper, who holds the electorate of Rockdale in Sydney’s south, hosed down speculation it could prompt him to retire before the March election, saying he would “absolutely be running”.

“I look forward to putting to the people of Rockdale why we need four more years of a NSW Labor government,” he said.

While there is a general belief Kamper would probably win a contested preselection, Chanthivong is in far more danger in his south-west Sydney electorate.

The Macquarie Fields MP, who has struggled through a series of high-profile missteps as a minister, has faced backlash from branch members and multiple senior Labor sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal party matters said branches in the electorate had been stacked to the extent he would lose an open ballot. “He’d lose to an empty chair,” one source said.

In June, the Ingleburn-Macquarie Fields branch passed a motion demanding “a full rank-and-file preselection process”. They wanted to ensure branch members were “provided with a genuine democratic right, voice and meaningful participation in the preselection process”.

The party is not prepared to let that happen. While some sources said there was no guarantee Chanthivong would keep his spot, the party’s convention against toppling sitting ministers makes that an outside chance. Chanthivong did not respond to a request for comment.

Kamper, Minns’ closest friend and ally in parliament, is in a less precarious position, but there is enough unrest in the always volatile southern Sydney Labor seat that it could be uncomfortable.

There has long been an expectation internally for Kamper to retire and pass the baton to his chief of staff, Bayside Mayor Ed McDougall, either at the election or next term. However, that has changed.

McDougall, who will step aside as mayor and be succeeded by Christina Curry at a Bayside Council meeting on Wednesday, no longer plans to run for parliament. He has a young family, and told this masthead: “I think it’s really important that people put their hand up for public office, but I have other personal priorities right now.”

Six months from the election, Labor has finalised preselection for most sitting ministers, as well as first-term MPs, female backbenchers, and some key seats such as Ryde, Oatley and Miranda.

But the party has held off opening nominations in seats held by veteran male backbenchers because of a looming gender problem within the caucus.

Labor rules have required a “minimum percentage” of seats to be held by women for several years. The quota has been ramping up since 2022, and last year reached a 50 per cent gender split for the first time. Under the current make-up of the party room, two male MPs would need to make way.

With Labor likely to retain government in 2027, some in the party believe the time is right for a larger refresh within the lower house caucus. That view is shared by senior figures both in Sussex Street and the parliamentary wing, but there has been little appetite for open bloodshed.

Senior party sources said there was growing confidence a clutch of veteran male MPs could be convinced to retire to make way for fresh talent. Among the names circulating are Prospect MP Hugh McDermott, Blacktown MP Stephen Bali, Entrance MP David Mehan and Mount Druitt MP Edmond Atalla. Sussex Street has begun meeting some MPs to gauge their openness to retirement.

MPs were also surprised last week when long-time MP Greg Donnelly resigned from parliament effective immediately, meaning the upper house will fill a casual vacancy less than six months before an election.

Donnelly, the idiosyncratic Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Association-aligned MP who held a spot in the upper house for 21 years, did not seek nomination for another eight-year term. However, colleagues were surprised on Friday when told he had tendered his resignation. It means Bernard Govind, an SDA union official preselected to take his spot, will likely enter parliament a few months early.

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