EXCLUSIVE: US sees Chinese invasion of Taiwan unlikely next year despite 2027 timeline, sources say - Reuters

United States officials assess that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely. This outlook persists despite Chinese President Xi Jinping's previous instructions for his military to be prepared to take the democratically governed island by force, if necessary, by the year 2027.

Several key factors contribute to this updated timeline. Among them are significant delays in Chinese military readiness, which have been exacerbated by the Chinese Communist Party's sweeping anti-corruption campaign. This internal crackdown has disrupted various sectors of the military, slowing down the preparations required for a large-scale amphibious invasion.

Furthermore, Beijing is closely monitoring the political landscape in Taiwan, specifically looking ahead to the island's 2028 presidential election. There is an expectation among some Chinese officials that the election could usher in a leadership more open to cross-strait integration, potentially allowing Beijing to achieve its goals without resorting to military conflict.

The situation could shift dramatically in 2028 and beyond depending on the election's outcome. If Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party wins a fourth consecutive term, or if the current president, Lai Ching-te, secures reelection, the probability of Beijing resorting to military force is expected to